Ivory Coast is expected to see a sharp decline in its main 2025/26 cocoa harvest, marking the third consecutive year of reduced output. The country has sold 1.3 million tonnes in forward contracts, slightly less than last year. Officials warn that cocoa arrivals at major ports could fall by up to 30% between January and March. The decline is being linked to aging farms, low farmer investment, plant diseases, and unpredictable rainfall.
Despite the challenges, authorities say no delivery defaults are anticipated. Early data also suggests the mid-crop could shrink by as much as 30%. The approaching harmattan season may further reduce yields due to dry, harsh winds. To stabilize supply, the cocoa regulator plans tighter stock monitoring, limited exporter purchasing, and spot-based sales of intermediate cocoa.
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